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Author Topic: So I hear one of the new crates has a higher unusual unbox rate for new effects?  (Read 8598 times)

Problem

  • Joined: August 20, 2011
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Can anyone tell me if there's any merit in this?

My brother's pals spent a lot of last night unboxing Sniper crates under the belief that they have a 25% unusual unbox rate. Obviously, this sounds completely ridiculous, but I can't help but consider trying my luck. And obviously, it'd be smart to try unboxing this weekend before Valve does any sort of patching.

[TisS] Crab Spy

  • Joined: August 17, 2011
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The sniper crate is definitely one of the best crates to open. People pay big money for the stuff in there, even the jarate. And if it supposedly has a 25% unusual chance, people would pay big money for the crate as well.

{PG} Aphex

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I'm pretty sure they don't have that high of a chance. If so, we'd see way more unusuals than the strange sniper weapons.

Lynaugh

  • Joined: August 19, 2011
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Yea according to the Official TF2 wiki, unboxing an unusual happens 1% of the time.

Arandomu

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Yea according to the Official TF2 wiki, unboxing an unusual happens 1% of the time.
Unless it's a festive crate, in which the rate was like, 2%? 2.5?

ìŖ˚unmaker

  • Joined: October 09, 2011
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the thing that most people fail to understand about unboxing: it is not the crate, nor the key that determines the chance of unusual, but a remote server that 'rolls the dice' and decides, at that exact moment and on a case by case basis, whether or not you will unbox an unusual. then, it rolls the dice again, determining the hat/effect (so 2 more rolls) if it has already hit the 'unusual' number of the dice roll (1 out of 100, like rolling a 1d100 and hitting the number preselected to be the unusual). in other words, it is all luck, and there is no crate that grants a better chance of unboxing an unusual than any other. 
during the week of christmas last year, there was (supposedly) a 4x increase in your chances, but that, again, has nothing to do with the crate or key itself. i did witness many more unboxes of unusuals that week, so that rumour was likely true.
people either get lucky, or they don't. crate number is ignored in all but the 'losing' 99% of unboxes, where it is used to determine which pool of items to 'roll' from.
i hope my explanation is helpful to some people, and if anyone can verify my statements, it will convince people not to worry about things like crate number, and prevent people from going out of their way to buy series 1 crates, etc, in hopes that it will give them an edge.   :)

and, to specifically address the question, i am going to take a stab here and say that someone misheard, or misunderstood something they heard: the chances of getting a hat may very well be about 1 in 4 in the sniper crates (dunno, don't have one handy to look at right now), but that is not the chance for an unusual. if 1 in 4 crates produced an unusual, those crates would cost an earbuds each in the trade market lol. there is no merit at all to that claim, sorry.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2011, 12:22 PM by ìŖ˚unmaker »

zachundosack

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Best crate = 19 imo, the taunt in it is like 3 keys so that helps alot when mass unboxing.

{PG} Aphex

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Unamker I believe what you said about the "roll the dice" system in completely false. What you think is they roll dices, but what really happens is:

At the time of unboxing, you get 5 seconds until you receive your reward. In those 5 seconds a random number is generated based on what Valve inputs (anywhere from 1-inifinite?). The number that is randomly picked is already "attached", if you will, to a specific item. Say the box has 3 paints and 1 unusual chance. It'd be:

Paint 1 - #0000003
Paint 2 - #0000004
Paint 3 - #0000005
Unusual - #000000000000000009
Now we split into effects and hats

Hats - #(first hat) - #(last hat added)

Then effects and level and so on and so forth.

ìŖ˚unmaker

  • Joined: October 09, 2011
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Unamker I believe what you said about the "roll the dice" system in completely false. What you think is they roll dices, but what really happens is:

At the time of unboxing, you get 5 seconds until you receive your reward. In those 5 seconds a random number is generated based on what Valve inputs (anywhere from 1-inifinite?). The number that is randomly picked is already "attached", if you will, to a specific item. Say the box has 3 paints and 1 unusual chance. It'd be:

Paint 1 - #0000003
Paint 2 - #0000004
Paint 3 - #0000005
Unusual - #000000000000000009
Now we split into effects and hats

Hats - #(first hat) - #(last hat added)

Then effects and level and so on and so forth.

erm, thats what i mean, but i put it in laymans terms. i love it when people disagree without fully trying to understand my meaning... 'completely false' isn't at all a fair way to state it. not false, just that i was putting it in terms people could easier comprehend. i do see what u mean though, maybe the MULTIPLE 'rolls' is not accurate. but the concept is very similar.
« Last Edit: October 12, 2011, 11:24 PM by ìŖ˚unmaker »